ဝါရွင္တန္၊ ဇန္နဝါရီ ၃၁
ကမာၻတစ္ဝန္းရွိ ႏိုင္ငံအသီးသီး၏ ႏိုင္ငံေရးစနစ္မ်ား၊ လြတ္လပ္ေရး ရရွိသည့္ ႏွစ္၊ လိုအပ္သည့္ တိုင္းရင္းသား ပညာတတ္ အသိုင္းအဝိုင္းရွိမႈ မရွိမႈ စသည့္အခ်က္ေပါင္း ဒါဇင္ေပါင္း မ်ားစြာကို ေလ့လာ သုံးသပ္ၿပီး ႏိုင္ငံေရး သိပၸံပညာရွင္ ေဂ်းယူဖဒါက ၂၀၁၄ ခုႏွစ္အတြင္း အာဏာသိမ္းမႈ ျဖစ္ပြားႏိုင္သည့္ ႏိုင္ငံမ်ားကို သုံးသပ္ ခန္႔မွန္းရာတြင္ ျမန္မာႏုိင္ငံလည္း ပါဝင္ထားသည္ကို Washington Post သတင္းတြင္ ပုံမ်ားႏွင့္တကြ ေဖာ္ျပထားသည္။
ႏိုင္ငံေရး ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲမႈမ်ား လုပ္ေဆာင္ေနေသာ ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံတြင္မူ အာဏာသိမ္းမႈ ေပၚေပါက္ လာႏိုင္ေျခမွာ ထိုင္းႏိုင္ငံႏွင့္ ယွဥ္လွ်င္ နည္းပါးလ်က္ ရွိၿပီး ၄ ရာခိုင္ႏႈန္းေက်ာ္ခန္႔သာ ရွိသည္။
ပုံ (စာမ်က္ႏွာ ၅) တြင္ အညဳိေရာင္ျဖင့္ ေဖာ္ျပထားသည့္ ႏိုင္ငံမ်ားသည္ အာဏာသိမ္းမႈ ေပၚေပါက္ရန္ အလားအလာ မ်ားေနၿပီး အဝါေရာင္ျဖင့္ ေဖာ္ျပထားသည့္ ႏိုင္ငံမ်ားမွာ အာဏာသိမ္းမႈ ေပၚေပါက္ႏိုင္ ေျခအနိမ့္ဆုံး ႏိုင္ငံမ်ား ျဖစ္သည္။
သို႔ေသာ္လည္း အညဳိေရာင္ျဖင့္ ေဖာ္ျပထားေသာ ႏိုင္ငံမ်ားတြင္ အာဏာသိမ္းမႈ ေပၚေပါက္ လာႏိုင္ေျခ ၅၀ ရာခိုင္ႏႈန္း ေအာက္တြင္သာ ရွိသည့္အတြက္ လက္ေတြ႕တြင္ အာဏာသိမ္းမႈ အမွန္တကယ္ ေပၚေပါက္လာႏိုင္ေျခ မရွိေပ။
အေနာက္အာဖရိက ႏိုင္ငံမ်ားျဖစ္ေသာ ဂီနီယာ၊ မာလီ စသည့္ ႏိုင္ငံမ်ားမွာ အာဏာသိမ္းႏိုင္ေျခ ၂၆ ဒသမ ၅ ရာခိုင္ႏႈန္းႏွင့္ ၂၂ ဒသမ ၇ ရာခိုင္ႏႈန္းထိ ရွိၿပီး မာဒါဂါစကာႏိုင္ငံမွာ ၂၃ ဒသမ ၉ ရာခိုင္ႏႈန္းထိ ရွိသည္။
အဆိုပါ အခ်က္အလက္မ်ားကို ၾကည့္ျခင္းျဖင့္ ဆာဟာရ ေအာက္ပိုင္း အာဖရိက ႏိုင္ငံမ်ားတြင္ အာဏာသိမ္းမႈ ေပၚေပါက္လာႏိုင္ေျခ မ်ားေနသည္ကို ေတြ႕ႏိုင္သည္။
ယင္းကဲ့သို႔ ျဖစ္ရျခင္းမွာ ႐ႈပ္ေထြးေသာ ႏိုင္ငံေရး၊ လူမ်ဳိးေရးႏွင့္ ကိုလိုနီေခတ္လြန္ အေၾကာင္းတရား မ်ားေၾကာင့္ ျဖစ္သည္။
အာဏာသိမ္းႏိုင္ေျခ မ်ားသည့္ အာဖရိကႏိုင္ငံ မဟုတ္သည့္ ႏိုင္ငံမွာ ထိုင္းႏိုင္ငံ ျဖစ္ၿပီး အာဏာသိမ္းမႈ ေပၚေပါက္လာႏိုင္ေျခမွာ ၁၀ ဒသမ ၉ ရာခိုင္ႏႈန္းထိ ရွိသည္။
ထိုင္းႏိုင္ငံမွာ ကမာၻ႔ႏိုင္ငံမ်ားအနက္ အာဏာသိမ္းမႈ အမ်ားဆုံး ေပၚေပါက္သည့္ ႏိုင္ငံတစ္ခု ျဖစ္ၿပီး လက္ရွိတြင္လည္း ႏိုင္ငံေရး မတည္ၿငိမ္မႈမ်ား၊ ဆႏၵျပမႈမ်ား ျဖစ္ပြားလ်က္ရွိသည္။
အာဖဂန္ႏိုင္ငံတြင္မူ လူမ်ဳိးေရးႏွင့္ ႏိုင္ငံေရး ယွဥ္ၿပဳိင္မႈ ျပင္းထန္ေနျခင္း၊ ပါကစၥတန္ႏိုင္ငံတြင္ လြတ္လပ္စြာသီးျခား ရပ္တည္ေလ့ရွိေသာ စစ္တပ္ ရွိျခင္း၊ အရပ္သား အစိုးရအင္အား ခ်ည့္နဲ႔ျခင္း စသည့္ အခ်က္မ်ားေၾကာင့္ အာဏာသိမ္းႏိုင္ေျခ ျမင့္တက္လ်က္ ရွိသည္။
အေနာက္ဘက္ ကမာၻျခမ္းအတြင္း အာဏာသိမ္းႏိုင္ေျခ အျမင့္ဆုံးႏိုင္ငံ ႏွစ္ခုမွာ ေဟတီႏွင့္ အီေကြေဒါ ႏွစ္ႏိုင္ငံ ျဖစ္ၿပီး ၉ ဒသမ ၂ ႏွင့္ ၈ ဒသမ ၅ ရာခိုင္ႏႈန္း အသီးသီးရွိသည္။
အေနာက္ႏိုင္ငံမ်ားႏွင့္ ဆက္ဆံေရး တင္းမာေနေသာ အီရန္ႏိုင္ငံတြင္မႈ အာဏာသိမ္းမႈ ေပၚေပါက္လာႏိုင္ေျခ ၁ ဒသမ ၄၃ ရာခိုင္ႏႈန္းသာ ရွိၿပီး အေမရိကန္ႏွင့္ အေနာက္ဥေရာပ ႏိုင္ငံအမ်ားစုတြင္ အာဏာသိမ္းမႈ ေပၚေပါက္ႏိုင္ေျခ ၀ ဒသမ ၁၅ ရာခိုင္ႏႈန္းသာ ရွိသည္။
ယင္းကဲ့သို႔ေသာ ခန္႔မွန္းခ်က္မ်ားကို ထုတ္ျပန္ရာတြင္ ေလ့လာသုံးသပ္ေရး နည္းလမ္းႏွစ္ရပ္ကို အသုံးျပဳၿပီးေနာက္ ပ်မ္းမွ်ရလဒ္ကို ရယူျခင္း၊ ၁၉၆၀ ႏွင့္ ၂၀၁၀ ျပည့္ႏွစ္ကာလ ကမာၻ႔ႏိုင္ငံမ်ားတြင္ ယင္းနည္းလမ္း အသုံးျပဳၿပီး စမ္းသပ္ ေလ့လာၾကည့္ျခင္း စသည့္ လုပ္ေဆာင္ခ်က္မ်ားကို ျပဳလုပ္ၿပီးေနာက္ ႏိုင္ငံေရးသိပၸံ ပညာရွင္ ေဂ်းယူဖဒါက ၂၀၁၄ ခုႏွစ္အတြင္း အာဏာသိမ္းမႈ ျဖစ္ပြားႏိုင္သည့္ ႏိုင္ငံမ်ားစာရင္းကို ထုတ္ျပန္ျခင္း ျဖစ္သည္။
စစ္အာဏာသိမ္းမႈမ်ားမွာ တရားဥပေဒ စိုးမိုးမႈကို ယိုင္နဲ႔ေစကာ ဒီမိုကရက္တစ္ အစဥ္အလာမ်ားႏွင့္ အင္စတီက်ဴးရွင္းမ်ားကို လုံးဝနီးပါး ပစ္ပယ္ထားျခင္းေၾကာင့္ အၾကမ္းဖက္မႈမ်ား၊ ဖိႏိွပ္မႈမ်ား ေပၚေပါက္ လာႏိုင္ေစေသာ အရာမ်ား ျဖစ္သည္။
Ref:The Voice Weekly
A worrying map of the countries most likely to have a coup in 2014
Click to enlarge. Data source: Jay Ulfelder coup forecasts for 2014. (Max Fisher/Washington Post)
Coups are bad news for any country. They weaken the rule of law, throw governments into chaos, undermine or outright jettison democratic norms and institutions, and can lead to violence, oppression or worse. They can also be tough to see coming, particularly since the people looking for them tend to focus on a single country, which can lead them to overemphasize local events and understate the broader dynamics that make coups happen, or not.
That's a big part of why political scientist Jay Ulfelder has, for the past three years, maintained a mathematical model to predict the likelihood of coups in almost every country around the world. By tracking over a dozen variables – from political system to years of independence the presence of absence of an "elite" ethnic group – Ulfelder's model roughly estimates the likelihood that each country will experience a coup this year. He "trained" the model by applying it over the years 1960 to 2010, further developing its ability to predict future coups by looking at past ones.
Ulfelder kindly shared his full dataset with me, which I've mapped out above. The redder countries are at higher risk for a coup and the yellower countries at lower risk. You can read his post here for much, much more about how he designed this model and what makes it work.
Here are a few notes to help you read this map. First, even the most extreme cases are well below a 50 percent likelihood of a coup, meaning that a coup probably won't occur. Those would be the West African countries of Guinea and Mali (26.5 percent and 22.7 percent likelihoods of coups) and Madagascar, at 23.9 percent likelihood. Those numbers are high enough, though, to be appropriately alarming. Second, the numbers drop off quickly, with the vast majority of countries less than 5 percent likelihood of a coup, and half of them less than 1.5 percent. So the difference between a dark red country and a light orange or yellow country is very significant.
There are a few immediately obvious trends in the data. First, it doesn't look good for sub-Saharan Africa, which has the top nine most at-risk countries. Not all of Africa, to be clear, much of which is quite stable, but the risk is heavily concentrated in Africa's Sahel region (that east-west strip just below the Saharan desert) and in West and Central Africa. There are complex political, ethnic and post-colonial reasons for this,which I wrote about here. Looking forward, political instability and competition risks holding back a part of the world that is otherwise poised for long-overdue economic growth.
Here is a chart Ulfelder put together showing the 40 most at-risk countries. For each country, he's run two different models and then averaged the results. That bold dot is the average score:
The 40 countries most at risk for a coup in 2014 (Jay Ulfelder)
The stand-outs beyond sub-Saharan Africa also tell some interesting stories. The highest-ranked non-African country is Thailand, with a projected 10.9 percent likelihood of a coup this year. By some measurements, Thailand has more coups than any other countries on earth (here's why) and is currently experiencing another round of protests and political turmoil. Afghanistan and Pakistan are at high risk, though for different reasons (deep ethnic and political competition in Afghanistan, an independent-leaning military in Pakistan, weak civilian governments in both). Egypt, which saw a coup in 2013, has a projected 9 percent chance of another this year. Further afield are Haiti and Ecuador, the only two countries in the Western hemisphere with significant risks for coups, with 9.2 and 8.5 percent projected, respectively. (This is why I wrote, in June, that NSA leaker Edward Snowden would be wise to turn down Ecuador's offer of asylum; the next government could change its mind.)
It's also worth pausing to appreciate the luxury many countries have of not worrying about coups. A lot of democratic as well as authoritarian states, rich as well as poor, have strong enough rule of law and institutional norms that they don't have to worry about coups. Ulfelder's model predicts only a 0.15 percent chance in the United States; many Western democracies show similar scores. So do some countries experiencing political turmoil, such as Greece and Cuba (0.14 and 0.21 percent risk, respectively). Iran, for all its problems and political infighting, only rates a 1.43 percent chance of a coup. That's probably great news for the United States: even if we don't like the Iranian government, it's preferable to chaos, and a government that can negotiate without worrying about a military coup has a freer hand to accept any U.S. nuclear deal.
For more on coups, what makes them likely or not, and the implications of this data, bookmark Ulfelder's blog, which will be revisiting these topics throughout the year.
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