နွစ္ေပါင္း ၅၀ အတြင္းရခိုင္ျပည္နယ္ကို အရယူရန္ႀကိဳးစားရျခင္းအေၾကာင္း
အေမရိကန္ သိပၸံပညာရွင္မ်ားအဖြဲ ့ (National Science Board) မွ ပညာရွင္ျဖစ္သူ ဂ်ိမ္းစ္ (James Lawrence Powell) က ကမၻာႀကီး ပူေႏြးလာမႈ ့နဲ ့ပက္သက္တဲ့ စာတမ္းေတြကုိ ေလ့လာၾကည့္တာ စာတမ္းေပါင္း ၂၄၂၁၀ ကုိေတြ ့တယ္။ ဒီစာတမ္းကုိ သိပၸံပညာရွင္ဦးေရ ၆၉၄၀၆ ဦးကေရးတယ္။ ဒါက ၂၀၁၃ နဲ ့ ၂၀၁၄ ၾကား၊ တစ္ႏွစ္အတြင္းမွာေရးတဲ့ စာတမ္းအေရအတြက္။ အားလုံးလုိလုိိက ကမၻာႀကီး ပူေႏြးမႈ ့ျဖစ္တဲ့ အေၾကာင္းအရင္းကေတာ့ မီးခုိးေငြ ့ေၾကာင့္ျဖစ္တယ္ဆုိတာကုိ အသိအမွတ္ျပဳၾကတယ္။
ေဒါက္တာ ဟန္ဆန္ (Dr.Hansen) ဆုိတဲ့လူက ပညာရွင္ေတြၾကားမွာ အေတာ္ဆုံးလူ။ နာဆာမွာညြန္ၾကားေရးမႈးအျဖစ္ လုပ္ခဲ့ဖူးတယ္။ သူက ဘဂၤလားေဒ့ရွ္ႏုိင္ငံနဲ ့ ပက္သက္ၿပီး စာအုပ္တစ္အုပ္ေရးခဲ့တယ္။ ကမၻာႀကီးပူေႏြးလာမႈ ့ေၾကာင့္ ဘဂၤလားေဒ့ရွ္ႏုိင္ငံကုိ ဘယ္လုိအက်ဳိးသက္ေရာက္ႏုိင္လဲဆုိတဲ့အေၾကာင္း။ ေက်ာက္မီးေသြး၊ ေရနံနဲ ့ဂက္စ္ထုတ္လုပ္တဲ့ လုပ္ငန္းရွင္ေတြကေတာ့ ကမၻာႀကီးပူလာတာဟာ သူတုိ ့ေၾကာင့္ မဟုတ္ဘူးဆုိၿပီး ျငင္းၾကတယ္။
ႏုိင္ငံတကာ ရာသီဥတုေျပာင္းလဲမႈ ့ကို ေလ့လာတဲ့အဖြဲ ့ (The International Panel for Climate Change – IPCC) က ဒီလုိခန္ ့မွန္းတယ္။ ကမၻာႀကီးပူေႏြးလာေတာ့ ေရခဲေတာင္ေတြ အရည္ေပ်ာ္တယ္။ ေပ်ာ္ေတာ့ ပင္လယ္ထဲကို စီး၀င္တယ္။ စီး၀င္ေတာ့ ပင္လယ္ေရမ်က္ႏွာျပင္က တျဖည္းျဖည္းျမင့္လာတယ္။ ၂၂-ရာစုေခတ္မွာ ကမၻာႀကီးပူေႏြးမႈ ့ေၾကာင့္ ပင္လယ္ေရမ်က္ႏွာျပင္ဟာ တစ္မီတာမဟုတ္ရင္ ႏွစ္မီတာေလာက္ျမင့္တက္လာမယ္လုိ ့ ေျပာတယ္။ ဘယ္ေလာက္ျမင့္မလဲဆုိတာကုိ အတိအက်ေျပာလုိ ့မရေပမဲ့ ျမင့္တက္လာမွေသခ်ာေနၿပီလုိ ့ ေျပာတယ္။ ေျပာတဲ့လူက ေဒါက္တာ ဟန္ဆန္။
နိမ့္တဲ့ေဒသေတြက ပုိၿပီးခံစားရမယ္။ အထူးသျဖင့္ ဘဂၤလားေဒ့ရွ္လုိ ႏုိင္ငံေတြ။ ဒီႏုိင္ငံေတြဟာ တျဖည္းျဖည္းနဲ ့ေရျမဳပ္ေနၿပီ။ အနာဂတ္မွာ ပိုဆုိးလာမယ္။ ဘဂၤလားေဒ့ရွ္ေျမာက္ပုိင္းနဲ ့စစ္တေကာင္းေတာင္တန္းေတြကလြဲရင္ ေနာင္ႏွစ္ေပါင္း ၂၅-ႏွစ္ အတြင္းမွာ ေရေအာက္ထဲကို ေရာက္သြားမယ္လုိ ့ေဒါက္တာ ဟန္ဆန္က ေျပာတယ္။
ဒါဆုိရင္ ေမးစရာေမးခြန္းတစ္ခုရွိတယ္။ တကယ္လုိ ့ေရေအာက္ထဲကုိ ဘဂၤလားေဒ့ရွ္ႏုိင္ငံေရာက္သြားရင္ လူဦးေရ သန္း ၁၇၀-ေလာက္ ဘယ္မွာသြားေနမလဲ။ ေနာက္ၿပီး ဒီႏုိင္ငံက တျဖည္းျဖည္း လူဦးေရက ေပါက္ကြဲထြက္ေနတယ္။
ဒါကုိ ေျဖရွင္းဖုိ ့ UN က ဦးေဆာင္လုပ္ေနတယ္။ ဘဂၤလားေဒ့ရွ္က လူေတြကုိ ျမန္မာျပည္ထဲကို ပုိ ့ဖုိ ့လုပ္ေနတယ္။ OIC နဲ ့ UN တုိ ့ေပါင္းတယ္။ အေမရိကန္နဲ ့ ယူေကက ေထာက္ခံတယ္။
၂၀၅၀-ခုႏွစ္ၾကရင္ သူ ့လူဦးေရကို ဘဂၤလားေဒ့ရွ္က လုံး၀ႏုိင္ေတာ့မွာမဟုတ္ဘူး။ အဲဒိလူဦးေရကုိ ျမန္မာျပည္က ေကၽြးရလိမ့္မယ္လုိ ့ ပညာရွင္ေတြက ခန္ ့မွန္းေနၾကၿပီ။ ဒီလုိျဖစ္ေအာင္ UN/OIC ၊ အေမရိကန္နဲ ့ ယူေကတုိ ့က အခုကတည္းက ျပင္ဆင္ေနၾကတယ္။
ပေရာ္ဖက္ဆာ ” ေရး” (အိႏၵိယလူမ်ဴိး) က တျဖည္းျဖည္းေရျမဳပ္လာေနေသာ ဘဂၤလားေဒ့ရွ္ႏုိင္ငံနဲ ့ပက္သက္၍ အိႏၵိယႏုိင္ငံႏွင့္ ျမန္မာႏုိင္ငံတုိ ့အတြက္ျပႆနာ (“Conflict Ahead for India, Myanmar: Drowning Bangladesh” on July 12, 2012.) လုိ ့ေခၚတဲ့ စာတမ္းတစ္ခုေရးတယ္။ ပေရာ္ဖက္ဆာေရးက သဘာ၀ပတ္၀န္းက်င္ဆုိင္ရာ ပညာရွင္။
အဲဒိစာတမ္းထဲမွာ ဘာပါလဲဆုိေတာ့ ၂၀၂၅-ခုႏွစ္ၾကရင္ ေျမနိမ့္ပုိင္းမွာေနတဲ့ လူဦးေရသန္း ၅၀-နဲ ့ ၈၀-ၾကားက ဘင္ဂါလီေတြကုိ ေနရာေရႊ ့မယ္။ ဂဂၤါျမစ္ေအာက္ပုိင္းမွာေနတဲ့ ဘင္ဂါလီေတြ။ ဒီကိစၥက လုံး၀ကို ေရွာင္လြဲလုိ ့မရတဲ့ကိစၥ။ မလုပ္မေနရ လုပ္ရမဲ့ကိစၥ။ မလုပ္ရင္ ေရျမဳပ္ၿပီးေသၾကလိမ့္မယ္။ အိႏၵိယႏုိင္ငံနဲ ့ျမန္မာအတြက္ ဒီကိစၥက အေရးႀကီးတယ္လုိ ့ေထာက္ျပတယ္။ ဘင္ဂါလီ လူဦးေရ သန္း ၁၅၀-ေလာက္က ႏွစ္ေပါင္း ၂၅-ႏွစ္နဲ ့ ၃၀-အတြင္းမွာ အိမ္နီးျခင္းႏုိင္ငံေတြျဖစ္တဲ့ ျမန္မာႏုိင္ငံနဲ ့အိႏၵိယႏုိင္ငံကုိ ေရာက္လာၾကလိမ့္မယ္။ အိႏၵိယနဲ ့ျမန္မာကလြဲရင္ က်န္တဲ့ေနရာ မရွိေတာ့ဘူးလုိ ့ စာတမ္းမွာေရးထားတယ္။
အိႏၵိယက သိတဲ့အတုိင္း လူဦးေရသန္းေထာင္ေက်ာ္ေနၿပီ။ သူလည္း လူေတြ တအားမ်ားေနၿပီ။ ဘင္ဂါလီေတြကို သူ ့ႏုိင္ငံမွာ လက္ခံဖုိ ့မျဖစ္ႏုိင္ဘူးလုိ ့ စာတမ္းမွာ ျပန္လည္ေထာက္ျပထားတယ္။
ဒါဆုိရင္ ဘယ္ႏုိင္ငံျဖစ္မလဲဆုိေတာ့ ျမန္မာႏုိင္ငံ။ ျမန္မာဟာ ဘဂၤလားေဒ့ရွ္ထက္ ငါးဆေလာက္ႀကီးတယ္။ လူဦးေရက သန္းငါးဆယ္ေက်ာ္။ ေျမေကာင္းတယ္။ သယံဇာတေပါတယ္။ ဒီႏုိင္ငံဟာ အေကာင္းဆုံးေနရာပဲဆုိတာ အျငင္းပြားစရာ မရွိဘူးလုိ ့ စာတမ္းက ေျပာတယ္။
စာတမ္းထဲမွာ ထပ္ၿပီးေထာက္ျပတာက ဘဂၤလားေဒ့ရွ္ႏုိင္ငံဟာ ဒီကိစၥကုိ ျဖစ္ဖုိ ့ ရခုိင္ျပည္နယ္ထဲမွာ က်ဳိးစားၿပီး ဖန္တီးေနတယ္လုိ ့ေျပာတယ္။ အဂၤလိပ္လုိကေတာ့ Foothold လုိ ့ေခၚတယ္။ စတင္ေျခခ်ေနၿပီလုိ ့ ဘာသာျပန္ရမယ္ထင္တယ္။ အဲဒါကေတာ့ အားလုံးသိတဲ့အတုိင္း So called ရုိဟင္ဂ်ာ။ တကယ့္ကုိ မဟာဗ်ဴဟာက်က် စီမံကိန္းလုိ ့ေျပာတယ္။ အဲဒိကေနတဆင့္ တႏုိင္ငံလုံး တျဖည္းျဖည္းနဲ ့၀ါးၿမိဳမယ္။
ဘုန္းေက်ာ္ (ၾသစေတ်းလ်)
Refs;
1) Comments to the article from Hla Oo’sBlog: UN Preparing Burma Absorb Sinking Bangladesh’s Millions ( January,28,2014).
UN Preparing Burma Absorb Sinking Bangladesh’s Millions
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| President Thein Sein Met UNSG Ban Ki-Moon. |
The completely-biased and one-sided ways the UN, OIC, US, UK, and other Powers-to-be of the so-called New World Order are constantly pressuring Burma for the better treatment of at least a million Bengali-Muslim illegal immigrants on the Bangladeshi border are quite baffling for most Burmese especially the Buddhists.
But for me the reason is quiet clear from the very beginning. All these super-powers of our world have been patiently and quietly preparing Burma to absorb the millions and millions of displaced Muslims from slowly-sinking Bangladesh.
For them UN and OIC and US, especially the OIC, the 60 million Buddhists in Burma are to be sacrificed for the welfare of 180 million Muslims from Bangladesh which is slowly sinking and by the year 2050 she will not be a viable nation no more, period.
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| President met UN's Vijay Nambia. |
That is the reason Ban Ki-Moon's Special Adviser On Myanmar (Burma) Vijay Nambia a friendly Indian Hindu has been frequently visiting Burma and most of the time there talking softly and persuasively into our President Thein Sein's ears.
Please keep in mind that India has no plan to absorb millions and millions of Bangladeshi Muslims the fellow South Asians, and UN's Vijay Nambia was also a seasoned Indian diplomat for whom India's interest always come first. Not Burma's or not even UN's.
And since ex-General Thein Sein publicly declared in 2011 his hard-line stance to send all Bengali-Muslims away to third countries our Presidnet Thein Sein has been dramatically softened down by UN and US and OIC to even considering of granting them so-called Rohingyas full Burmese citizenship.
That is the reason that so-called Special Rapporteur On Human Rights in Myanmar (Burma)Tomas Quintana a closet-Muslim has been bad-mouthing and aggressively applying so much pressure on Thein Sein simultaneously as Nambia was nicely persuading Thein Sein to soften his attitude towards Bengali-Muslims in particular and Bangladeshi Muslims in general.
IMHO United Nations is basically pulling a standard "Bad Cop - Good Cop" police routine on Burma's President Thein Sein and his ministers and unfortunately they seem to be buckling under that stupid crap.
Following article titled “Conflict Ahead for India, Myanmar: Drowning Bangladesh” by Indian-American-Academic-and-Environmentalist Professor Ray Bawarchi from The India America Today on July 12, 2012 basically laid down the foundation for that eventual reality of relocating at least 50 to 80 millions Bangladeshi Muslims currently living on the low-lying delta areas of River Ganges (Gingar-Myit in Burmese) by as early as 2025 just a little more than 10 short years from now.
The primary news story out of Myanmar these days is the gradual opening of the nation and its ongoing political reforms.
Former political prisoner, Aung San Suu Kyi, is now a member of parliament. Not only is the Nobel laureate no longer under house arrest; she’s been on a tour of Europe. The reasons for this rapid liberalization of a nation, which until recently had been completely controlled by a military dictatorship, are complex.
The growing food crisis may factor more heavily into the situation than is generally acknowledged. The need for food can override the fear of guns. Maybe the dictatorship realized this just in time.
No matter what the reasons for the change and no matter what direction the government ultimately takes, there is another source of unrest in Myanmar. This impending conflict will also directly involve India and Bangladesh and is essentially unavoidable. This conflict will be initiated neither by the clash of armies nor ideologies. Rather, this conflict will be initiated by nature.
As a by-product of climate change sea levels are slowly rising. The rate at which sea levels are rising varies depending on various assumptions but the overall trend is indisputable. Even the most conservative estimates of rising sea levels indicate that Bangladesh will be underwater by 2050. Other projections put the time as soon as 2025.
What then? What happens to the more than 150 million people of Bangladesh? More importantly, where do they go? If simply moving into India were the answer then Bangladesh likely would not exist in the first place.
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| By 2050 the lower-half of Bengal Active Delta will be completely underwater. |
Moving into Myanmar however, seems even more implausible. Despite the aforementioned political reforms in Myanmar, one area where matters have not improved and may have even worsened is the treatment of the Muslim minority in the mostly Buddhist country.
The Muslim minority, mostly of South Asian descent, are the targets of open discrimination and marginalization. According to a report on Reuters News Service, the Rohingya, as they are known, are denied citizenship and are forced to live as refugees within their own nation. Given their treatment, what is the likelihood that Myanmar will welcome millions of more Muslims?
The conflict is not desired, it is inevitable. The previous solution of segregation by religious affiliation cannot continue. More than a 150 million people are going to be displaced at some point over the next thirty years into areas where they are neither wanted nor want to go. Something has to give and it will affect the whole region.
The areas of South Asia and South East Asia are among the world’s most densely populated areas. The scarcity of resources, including such basics as water and food, exhibit great stress upon the entire region. The already omnipresent food insecurity in the area will only get worse as farm land goes underwater. Here is where conflict becomes unavoidable. Food goes beyond political and religious ideology. Survival trumps all else.
This disaster is already underway and will continue in slow motion for decades. That will not make the results any less tragic and may make matters worse by postponing action. None of the countries that will be most affected appear ready to accept even small numbers of refugees.
Yet people will have to move because there will be no other choice. It is not at all clear what path will be taken as this uncontrollable population shift occurs among ethnic and religious groups that have been historically at odds. What seems most likely is large numbers confined to the margins, a type of South Asian Palestine. No one can want that alternative. What can be done?
Conflict appears to be unavoidable. This looming problem is too big for individuals to effectively have any real impact. It will require the coordinated efforts of the governments of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar, at the very minimum, and must rise above creating another class of refugees within their own lands.
There are numerous barriers to addressing this possible catastrophe, and there is no ready solution. Inaction, however, will only make matters worse.
Thankfully this debate must happen in India and can avoid the idiocy of global warming deniers that would prevent discussion of such matters in America.
(Ray Bawarchi (b. 1962) is an American author, environmentalist, and columnist. Born in North Carolina, Bawarchi has lived throughout the US. He is a graduate of the University of North Carolina and holds a Ph.D. in clinical psychology from Auburn University.
His early career in psychology involved working in inpatient psychiatric facilities and correctional institutions. He subsequently practiced in a diverse and extensive private practice in Colorado. At present Bawarchi is a professor of psychology at a large public university.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------(Following is a relevant comment posted by a well-informed Burmese-American at Australian National University ANU’s New Mandala Blog’s Post titled “Sleeping Dogs” by Matt Schissler from Paung-Ku Project in Burma. The commenter has also provided the WWW link to Ray Bawarchi’s above excellent article “Conflict Ahead for India, Myanmar: Drowning Bangladesh.” Thanks a million to U Aung Moe for that!)
Posted by Aung Moe on January 25, 2014 at 6:19 AM
It is incredibly naive that many people including the Guest Contributor Matt Schissler himself honestly believe the peaceful coexistence with Muslim minority who are basically Bengali-speaking descendants of Bangladeshi-Migrants is eventually achievable in predominantly-Buddhist Burma.
The enormous Islamic elephant sitting in the room is the neighboring Bangladesh which is slowly sinking and trying to find a place large enough for her nearly 180 million Muslims within next 30 or 40 years.
Burma which is 5 times larger than tiny Bangladesh and with only 60 million Buddhist population is a perfect place to move in. Can anyone imagine what horrible things 180 million Muslims could do to a native Buddhist people of only 60 millions. History wasn’t really kind to the Buddhists at all.
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, CHT (Chittagong Hill Tracts) in Bangladesh are the solid proof of that Islamic horror fallen unfortunately upon native Buddhist people.
For them Bangladeshis to establish a toe-hold in neighbouring Burma’s Arakan through so-called Rohingya (Bengali-Muslims) is not a dream but a real strategic plan. From there they will swallow alive whole Buddhist Burma like they have been doing to the Yakhine-Buddhists for many decades since 1942.
And Burmese Buddhists (especially the Sangha or Monks) know that very well and they have been fighting back for years and years since 1962 as the Muslim numbers exponentially grow in Burma from less than 4% in 1962 to now more than 15% or even nearly 20% according to some aggressive Islamic organizations.
My fellow Burmese-Buddhists are now fighting back for the ultimate survival of their race, religion, and culture and thus the peaceful coexistence with Bengali-Muslims is not a real option for them as long as that existential threat from Bangladesh is right there on the Western Border.
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Posted by Ohn on January 25, 2014 at 10:56 PM
Thanks truly, U Aung Moe for that explicit and succinct explanation.
That is indeed seemingly genuine belief among the military circles and also now fully subscribed by majority government employees and of course “mainstream” politicians as single most agreed upon policy regarding this wretched group of human beings.
So there it is busy bodies. Something to work on all spelled out. Analyse and critique or defend it like a baby.
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Posted by Moe Aung on January 26, 2014 at 6:57 PM
Clear and present danger. The generals can milk it for ever more. Thank heavens for the Tatmadaw!
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| By the year 2100 most of Bangladesh will be completely underwater. |
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